China's Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society | 
| Authors: John Naisbitt, Doris Naisbitt
Publisher: HarperBusiness
Category: Book
List Price: $27.99
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Rating:  15 reviews
Sales Rank: 113613
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 272
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.1
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.1 x 1.1
ISBN: 0061859443
Dewey Decimal Number: 330.951
EAN: 9780061859441
ASIN: 0061859443
Publication Date: January 1, 2010
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Product Description
A groundbreaking look at a new social-political model on the rise John and Doris Naisbitt, longtime China observers, provide an in-depth study of the fundamental changes in China's social, political, and economic life, and their impact on the West. With extraordinary access, and using the same techniques behind John Naisbitt's international bestseller Megatrends, the Naisbitts have traveled the country, interviewing journalists, entrepreneurs, academics, politicians, artists, dissidents, and expatriates. With the help of twenty-eight staff members of the Naisbitt China Institute in Tianjin, they have monitored local newspapers in all of China's provinces to identify the evolving perspectives and deep forces underlying China's transformation. Their research reveals that China is not only undergoing fundamental changes but also creating an entirely new social and economic model—what the Naisbitts call a "vertical democracy"—that is changing the rules of global trade and challenging Western democracy as the only acceptable form of governing. The Naisbitts have identified 8 pillars as the foundation and drivers of China's new society: - Emancipation of the Mind
- Balancing Top-Down and Bottom-Up
- Framing the Forest and Letting the Trees Grow
- Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones
- Artistic and Intellectual Ferment
- Joining the World
- Freedom and Fairness
- From Olympic Medals to Nobel Prizes
Examining each of these 8 pillars in great detail, China's Megatrends describes the new China for the knowledgeable and the newly curious, offering fresh and provocative insights and lessons to be learned.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 15
 Positive viewpoint on how far China has travelled May 25, 2010
Rolf Dobelli (Switzerland)
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
Futurist John Naisbitt was never one for understatement, and that holds true with this sweeping book on China. His early works broke ground and brought provocative ideas to light. This book, written with his wife, Doris Naisbitt, is less revolutionary. With warm enthusiasm, the authors present a comprehensive, generous compilation of eight major forces shaping China. They explain China's politics simply and straightforwardly, with a generous dose of quotes from former leader Deng Xiaoping and others. The Naisbitts' prose style and their slogans or sayings seem to lilt with a slightly Chinese cadence and, sometimes, even sentence structure. The book is not directed at cognoscenti who seek academic or deep coverage of China's complexities, contradictions and challenges. Instead, getAbstract finds that it is a very accessible look at how China is evolving today, written for an interested but not expert general audience and slightly sugared with an accent on the positive. The authors praise China's leaders - and even laud the fact that most leaders aren't elected - and believe that criticism of China is based on misunderstandings that will clear up as the eight forces they list come to fruition over time.
Can America win by confronting China? March 7, 2010
Francis Fung (San Francisco)
3 out of 6 found this review helpful
Can America win by confronting China?
By Francis C W Fung ([...])
Updated: 2010-02-25 17:20
Will America win in an all out confrontation with China? The reality is both sides will lose. How much each side will lose? Which nation will recover more readily from the loss suffered from such an unwise and unthinkable confrontation? Will our over reach into another unnecessary cold war be productive? How essential is it for both nations to reach harmony consensus for win- win development instead of confrontation? America should have a public debate on this very urgent and important subject so we are better prepared for the consequences of our confrontational actions should we decide to embark on it.
Leaders of both nations are fully aware of the severe consequences of an avoidable all out confrontation. But a public debate in America is needed so President Obama will not be subjected to undue pressure from the public to provoke China to the point of no return. American media still mire its mind in the past Cold War mentality as to have not done the necessary task to educate American public about China development. We are uninformed and under disillusion about how China could progress so fast economically during the past three decades.
Despite the fact that the 2008 global financial crises was caused by America, there has rarely been any complaint from China. Chinese culture is not known to be critical of others. Fortunately Chinese leaders also read Sun Zi and follow Deng Xiaoping's foreign policy teaching for China -"Observe developments soberly, maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership" and avoid serious confrontations. American leaders are under pressure from the public to confront China for the last half century ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Our citizens are constantly reminded by the media that we have the best political system and China must follow the American model to develop (See Martin Jacques, "When China Rules the World", 2010).
American media has vowed with confidence that China now is more dependent on American market. This media driven misinformation served to build up American confidence to please the public. This misconception of the public can be dangerous as to force our leaders hands on too many unnecessary confrontations with China, as witnessed by our superior than thou attitude on Internet Freedom, sales of arms to Taiwan and Obama's meeting with Dalai Lama, despite repeated warning from China. On further analysis it is easy to show that America is actually more dependent on China as our banker to support out twin deficits.
Americans think we won the Cold War because of our superior ideology. Over the years, we have convinced ourselves that we are invincible. We also are very proud that our military power is supreme and that we are a creative nation and lead the world in technology. The truth is that our business enterprise is competitive because we have an early action in industrial revolution and our most endowed land attracts vast number of talents who seek opportunities. Ideology is very fickle. A nation can change her ideology on a dime as we witness China's transformation. During the last three decades of reform and opening up she has proved that her hybrid system of combined state economy with market economy can work quite well. Many foreign talents that used to come from Europe, Japan, China and India are now returning home because economic opportunities in their homelands are growing with increased prosperity. This phenomenon is well known as we saw Japanese and Taiwanese scientists and entrepreneurs returning home during the latter part of last Century and recently some Chinese and Indian talents are doing the same.
If current American provocation is unchecked there may come a point that China will be forced to retaliate in action by discontinuing to subsidize our twin deficits. This reaction will most likely lead to an all out confrontation. The first to suffer will be American consumers who will need to pay higher prices for essential goods to maintain our living standard. Next will be American and Chinese businesses, because 70 % of imports from China are under joint venture management with foreign companies making more profit than that of Chinese business. It may not be fun to watch the domino effects of worldwide trade protectionism and stock markets crash, but it could happen like the 1929 world depression. When this does occur there is no telling who will be the bigger loser.
Luckily the world will recover from the next depression if it should occur despite our efforts to prevent it. The question is who will be more likely to recover from it fastest? America has never had a major calamity that took place in our home land other than the Civil War. China, however on the other hand, during the last Century, experienced the devastation of numerous imperial wars of aggression, the Japanese occupation, two major civil wars, the Cultural Revolution and the recent devastating Sichuan earthquake. She has showed remarkable resilience in recovering from all those calamities. In addition, as an ancient culture, she has shown continuous unity for a long uninterrupted history of five thousand years.
As a dynamic young nation, America does not have a deep rooted ancient civilization as binding force. China is a cultural state and not a political state. China is more centralized and cohesive as is demonstrated by her developing pattern over the last three decades and her fast recovery from the last global economic crisis. (See Martin Jacques, "When China Rules the World", 2010). As the world's manufacturing center, China certainly will be the first to have the get up and go to export consumer goods to the rest of the developing world. Remember in any depression, when the stock market has crashed, cash is king. Whereas America is currently heavily in debt, China has two trillion dollars of foreign currency reserve. Adding the 700 billion from Hong Kong, this will make 2.7 trillion. She and other cash rich nations in Asia will certainly recover much faster during this potential depression than America, even if they are not targeted to rise already by most accounts.
History has ample documentations of the 1929 global depression. It is sufficient to conclude that at this time of crisis, caution is the best part of velour for both America and China not to tempt fate. The most advisable course of action is for America and China both to continue cooperation and reach Harmony Consensus. In a joint effort between the most powerful developed nation and the fastest growing developing country, America and China will both fulfill the manifested destination of greatness, bringing lasting peace and harmony to the world. Harmony is the most common value of human civilization and Harmony Renaissance is the next creative wave of energy mankind is waiting for to lead us to the next level of accomplishment beyond European Renaissance.
Identification of 8 foundations of the emerging new society April 14, 2010
Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA)
0 out of 3 found this review helpful
CHINA'S MEGATRENDS: THE 8 PILLARS OF A NEW SOCIETY come from longtime China observers who here provide an in-depth study of China's revolutionary social, political and economic life and how this in turn affects the West. The authors traveled the country interviewing journalists, students, business people, artists and more, monitored local newspapers in all of China's provinces to identify deep forces affecting the nation's transformation, and here provides their identification of 8 foundations of the emerging new society. Both business and social interest libraries and of course any collection strong in Chinese history and culture must have this!
AN AWESOME AND COMPELLING WORK February 22, 2010
Larry Michelson
2 out of 9 found this review helpful
Regardless of political party affiliation, every U.S. politician, their staff and all America's media and academic pundits need to read and objectively think about the implications of this book on the future of the United States.
The Naisbitt's analysis of China is right-on with what has happened in this country these last 30 years, and where she sits today. As for the 21st Century, the authors demonstrate China's strategic direction and rapid development and implementation of the necessary tactics to support their planning and vision for the future. Contrast China's approach to America's dysfunctional political parties, who at best, when they do anything for the country chase one political tactic after another with usually one strategy in mind...stay in or regain power.
Anyone who thoughfully reads this book should realize that if the United States doesn't get its domestic and international act together soon, historians one day will record the 21st Century as the Chinese Century. At the same time, historians will write that the 21st Century for the United States was one of economic, political and social decline.
 A good survey of what is happening in China today but has not quite got to the heart of the matter. January 19, 2010
Cheryl (Birmingham, UK)
15 out of 22 found this review helpful
So much change has taken place in China in the past three decades--and is taking place at such a dazzling pace on a daily basis--that it is a daunting task for the knowledgeable, not to mention the newly curious, to grasp the picture that is China today. Using the same techniques behind his Megatrends published in 1982, Naisbitt has written a welcome book that describes today's China in broad strokes, or the "eight pillars", in his terms.
In short, a good effort from a Westerner to try to present China using a balanced approach; an informed read definitely for the newly curious.
But the book is clearly strained in certain places--hence only a four-star rating--as a result of the author's failure to truly grasp the essence of thousands-year-old Chinese culture, which surely is a fundamental force forever existent to shape China's future.
Consider this fatal misconception on pages 41-42 where the author discusses his interesting observation about China's "vertical democracy":
"Social order and harmony were central to the teachings of Confucius, who believed that only order could provide true freedom. This concept also prevails in team sports, where rules set the conditions for freedom in playing. In the same way, an orderly society establishes the context within which people can act freely. In the Chinese way of thinking, order does not oppress people but defines room to maneuver."
Ask anybody who has studied Confucius and Chinese history, he or she will tell us that at the heart of the teachings of Confucius are family ethics extended to the whole of a society--making China a "connections-based society", according to Wei Wang, author of The China Executive. In other words, it is "interpersonal relations, involving both obedience and accountability" that constitute the unique fabric of Chinese society.
And if we reflect a little upon our own society, we know that contrary to what Naisbitt says above, the concept of "team", where rules set the conditions for freedom in playing, actually lies at the very heart of a Western society, making it "rules-based".
Therefore, if the watchword for Chinese society is harmony, then the watchword for a Western society is freedom. And neither is perfect.
For me, this most fundamental difference between a Western society and Chinese society, which is thoroughly and entertainingly discussed in The China Executive (in particular, on pages 20-34; and while The China Executive is a business book, it contains many important insights into the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese culture and worldview--especially in chapters 1 and 9), has profound implications for where China is heading.
For instance, instead of saying that China is developing a vertical democracy as Naisbitt does, we could argue that China's path to democracy has to begin from the middle, i.e. at the level of an enterprise. Chinese history tells us that dramatic change at either the top or the bottom would lead to chaos or even civil wars simply because the vast majority of the Chinese people have not had sufficient training in system-wide logical thinking.
An enterprise is an appropriate "team" context, in which the Chinese can try to break away from their age-old family-oriented thinking and learn to debate in a logical way, to put forward appropriate rules, and to experience the consequences of following or not following the rules.
Put it simply, if the Chinese struggle to behave according to rules in an enterprise--we have to remember that over half of the 1.3 billion people have never had the chance to be a member of any rules-based organisation--it is hopeless to expect them to be able to understand and observe the rules of a nationwide democracy.
Read Tim Clissold's book Mr China, we will understand why even at the enterprise level, the idea of a "team" still poses such a challenge to the Chinese.
"China cannot be thoroughly understood from either a Western or a Chinese perspective. To grasp its nature requires an orbital, historical view of both the West and China," Wang says. It is also safe to say that China has risen in the past three decades as a result of its learning from the West, and there is no doubt that it will continue to learn from the West.
But by largely justifying the status quo of China, Naisbitt seems to suggest that there is no need for China to learn further from the West. (Arguably, there is even more for the West to learn from China or rather Chinese civilisation, but that is a different matter - a good place to start with is Yu Dan's Confucius from the Heart.)
Nowhere is this more clearly shown than at the beginning and the end of the book, where the author posed the question: "How did China succeed?" (Note the past tense of the sentence.)
Surely this is against Confucian spirit, which would tell us that China's road to success (if we define success as both harmony and freedom) is still "long and arduous" ("renzhong er daoyuan", The Analects, book VIII, chapter 7) - some of the challenges China will have to face are discussed by James Kynge in China Shakes the World.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 15
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